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WSPR tornado V3: calm-season + density-matched controls (12 outbreaks, 24 controls)

draft Updated 2026-04-20

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Data

control_classification.json 2.9 KB
control_selection_log.json 13.5 KB
cross_event_summary.json 577.9 KB
events.parquet 11.5 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_ark-la-miss-2023-04-01.json 173.3 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-ark-la-miss-2023-04-01-a.json 135.6 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-ark-la-miss-2023-04-01-b.json 135.4 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-deep-south-2023-03-24-a.json 137.2 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-deep-south-2023-03-24-b.json 147.6 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-great-plains-2022-04-12-a.json 136.0 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-great-plains-2022-04-12-b.json 135.4 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-heartland-2023-05-11-a.json 135.4 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-heartland-2023-05-11-b.json 139.8 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-iowa-2024-05-21-a.json 136.6 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-iowa-2024-05-21-b.json 135.4 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-mayfield-2021-12-11-a.json 135.4 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-mayfield-2021-12-11-b.json 135.4 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-midwest-2021-12-15-a.json 138.3 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-midwest-2021-12-15-b.json 135.4 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-nebraska-2024-04-26-a.json 136.9 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-nebraska-2024-04-26-b.json 136.1 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-oklahoma-2024-05-06-a.json 150.9 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-oklahoma-2024-05-06-b.json 135.7 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-palm-sunday-2023-04-05-a.json 162.9 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-palm-sunday-2023-04-05-b.json 147.6 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-southeast-2024-12-28-a.json 135.7 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-southeast-2024-12-28-b.json 135.6 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-tennessee-2023-12-09-a.json 136.3 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_control-tennessee-2023-12-09-b.json 135.4 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_deep-south-2023-03-24.json 155.1 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_great-plains-2022-04-12.json 152.2 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_heartland-2023-05-11.json 151.3 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_iowa-2024-05-21.json 165.6 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_mayfield-2021-12-11.json 153.1 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_midwest-2021-12-15.json 148.5 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_nebraska-2024-04-26.json 159.0 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_oklahoma-2024-05-06.json 171.5 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_palm-sunday-2023-04-05.json 165.8 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_southeast-2024-12-28.json 154.3 KB
mechanism_lag_spc_tennessee-2023-12-09.json 156.0 KB
mwu_ob_vs_dose.json 392 B
per_event_summary.json 21.0 KB
per_event_v3_table.csv 3.6 KB
spc_reports_ark-la-miss-2023-04-01.parquet 19.7 KB
spc_reports_control-ark-la-miss-2023-04-01-a.parquet 3.1 KB
spc_reports_control-ark-la-miss-2023-04-01-b.parquet 2.5 KB
spc_reports_control-deep-south-2023-03-24-a.parquet 2.4 KB
spc_reports_control-deep-south-2023-03-24-b.parquet 4.7 KB
spc_reports_control-great-plains-2022-04-12-a.parquet 4.8 KB
spc_reports_control-great-plains-2022-04-12-b.parquet 775 B
spc_reports_control-heartland-2023-05-11-a.parquet 775 B
spc_reports_control-heartland-2023-05-11-b.parquet 2.6 KB
spc_reports_control-iowa-2024-05-21-a.parquet 2.4 KB
spc_reports_control-iowa-2024-05-21-b.parquet 775 B
spc_reports_control-mayfield-2021-12-11-a.parquet 775 B
spc_reports_control-mayfield-2021-12-11-b.parquet 775 B
spc_reports_control-midwest-2021-12-15-a.parquet 2.4 KB
spc_reports_control-midwest-2021-12-15-b.parquet 775 B
spc_reports_control-nebraska-2024-04-26-a.parquet 2.8 KB
spc_reports_control-nebraska-2024-04-26-b.parquet 2.4 KB
spc_reports_control-oklahoma-2024-05-06-a.parquet 4.2 KB
spc_reports_control-oklahoma-2024-05-06-b.parquet 2.8 KB
spc_reports_control-palm-sunday-2023-04-05-a.parquet 4.0 KB
spc_reports_control-palm-sunday-2023-04-05-b.parquet 4.7 KB
spc_reports_control-southeast-2024-12-28-a.parquet 2.8 KB
spc_reports_control-southeast-2024-12-28-b.parquet 2.5 KB
spc_reports_control-tennessee-2023-12-09-a.parquet 3.7 KB
spc_reports_control-tennessee-2023-12-09-b.parquet 775 B
spc_reports_deep-south-2023-03-24.parquet 8.5 KB
spc_reports_great-plains-2022-04-12.parquet 14.1 KB
spc_reports_heartland-2023-05-11.parquet 9.2 KB
spc_reports_iowa-2024-05-21.parquet 17.3 KB
spc_reports_mayfield-2021-12-11.parquet 11.9 KB
spc_reports_midwest-2021-12-15.parquet 11.2 KB
spc_reports_nebraska-2024-04-26.parquet 11.1 KB
spc_reports_oklahoma-2024-05-06.parquet 13.7 KB
spc_reports_palm-sunday-2023-04-05.parquet 11.4 KB
spc_reports_southeast-2024-12-28.parquet 9.9 KB
spc_reports_tennessee-2023-12-09.parquet 6.2 KB
spots_ark-la-miss-2023-04-01.parquet 89.0 MB
spots_clean_ark-la-miss-2023-04-01.parquet 143.7 MB
spots_clean_control-ark-la-miss-2023-04-01-a.parquet 158.0 MB
spots_clean_control-ark-la-miss-2023-04-01-b.parquet 276.9 MB
spots_clean_control-deep-south-2023-03-24-a.parquet 183.5 MB
spots_clean_control-deep-south-2023-03-24-b.parquet 168.6 MB
spots_clean_control-great-plains-2022-04-12-a.parquet 84.2 MB
spots_clean_control-great-plains-2022-04-12-b.parquet 192.8 MB
spots_clean_control-heartland-2023-05-11-a.parquet 183.9 MB
spots_clean_control-heartland-2023-05-11-b.parquet 173.1 MB
spots_clean_control-iowa-2024-05-21-a.parquet 193.4 MB
spots_clean_control-iowa-2024-05-21-b.parquet 252.3 MB
spots_clean_control-mayfield-2021-12-11-a.parquet 73.8 MB
spots_clean_control-mayfield-2021-12-11-b.parquet 92.3 MB
spots_clean_control-midwest-2021-12-15-a.parquet 85.5 MB
spots_clean_control-midwest-2021-12-15-b.parquet 87.3 MB
spots_clean_control-nebraska-2024-04-26-a.parquet 169.9 MB
spots_clean_control-nebraska-2024-04-26-b.parquet 281.3 MB
spots_clean_control-oklahoma-2024-05-06-a.parquet 159.4 MB
spots_clean_control-oklahoma-2024-05-06-b.parquet 250.3 MB
spots_clean_control-palm-sunday-2023-04-05-a.parquet 194.5 MB
spots_clean_control-palm-sunday-2023-04-05-b.parquet 169.1 MB
spots_clean_control-southeast-2024-12-28-a.parquet 253.8 MB
spots_clean_control-southeast-2024-12-28-b.parquet 279.6 MB
spots_clean_control-tennessee-2023-12-09-a.parquet 162.9 MB
spots_clean_control-tennessee-2023-12-09-b.parquet 144.3 MB
spots_clean_deep-south-2023-03-24.parquet 139.6 MB
spots_clean_great-plains-2022-04-12.parquet 84.0 MB
spots_clean_heartland-2023-05-11.parquet 101.8 MB
spots_clean_iowa-2024-05-21.parquet 177.7 MB
spots_clean_mayfield-2021-12-11.parquet 79.8 MB
spots_clean_midwest-2021-12-15.parquet 83.9 MB
spots_clean_nebraska-2024-04-26.parquet 141.3 MB
spots_clean_oklahoma-2024-05-06.parquet 140.3 MB
spots_clean_palm-sunday-2023-04-05.parquet 158.1 MB
spots_clean_southeast-2024-12-28.parquet 186.2 MB
spots_clean_tennessee-2023-12-09.parquet 137.0 MB
spots_control-ark-la-miss-2023-04-01-a.parquet 94.5 MB
spots_control-ark-la-miss-2023-04-01-b.parquet 166.9 MB
spots_control-deep-south-2023-03-24-a.parquet 108.4 MB
spots_control-deep-south-2023-03-24-b.parquet 108.0 MB
spots_control-great-plains-2022-04-12-a.parquet 51.6 MB
spots_control-great-plains-2022-04-12-b.parquet 120.6 MB
spots_control-heartland-2023-05-11-a.parquet 109.4 MB
spots_control-heartland-2023-05-11-b.parquet 105.8 MB
spots_control-iowa-2024-05-21-a.parquet 124.8 MB
spots_control-iowa-2024-05-21-b.parquet 141.9 MB
spots_control-mayfield-2021-12-11-a.parquet 50.6 MB
spots_control-mayfield-2021-12-11-b.parquet 55.7 MB
spots_control-midwest-2021-12-15-a.parquet 55.3 MB
spots_control-midwest-2021-12-15-b.parquet 51.2 MB
spots_control-nebraska-2024-04-26-a.parquet 112.1 MB
spots_control-nebraska-2024-04-26-b.parquet 163.5 MB
spots_control-oklahoma-2024-05-06-a.parquet 97.1 MB
spots_control-oklahoma-2024-05-06-b.parquet 141.4 MB
spots_control-palm-sunday-2023-04-05-a.parquet 115.2 MB
spots_control-palm-sunday-2023-04-05-b.parquet 108.2 MB
spots_control-southeast-2024-12-28-a.parquet 143.7 MB
spots_control-southeast-2024-12-28-b.parquet 162.2 MB
spots_control-tennessee-2023-12-09-a.parquet 93.2 MB
spots_control-tennessee-2023-12-09-b.parquet 81.9 MB
spots_deep-south-2023-03-24.parquet 77.7 MB
spots_great-plains-2022-04-12.parquet 59.3 MB
spots_heartland-2023-05-11.parquet 70.5 MB
spots_iowa-2024-05-21.parquet 113.6 MB
spots_mayfield-2021-12-11.parquet 50.9 MB
spots_midwest-2021-12-15.parquet 53.7 MB
spots_nebraska-2024-04-26.parquet 92.7 MB
spots_oklahoma-2024-05-06.parquet 86.1 MB
spots_palm-sunday-2023-04-05.parquet 99.5 MB
spots_southeast-2024-12-28.parquet 110.5 MB
spots_tennessee-2023-12-09.parquet 76.1 MB
storm_test_ark-la-miss-2023-04-01.json 9.5 KB
storm_test_control-ark-la-miss-2023-04-01-a.json 8.1 KB
storm_test_control-ark-la-miss-2023-04-01-b.json 7.9 KB
storm_test_control-deep-south-2023-03-24-a.json 8.0 KB
storm_test_control-deep-south-2023-03-24-b.json 8.4 KB
storm_test_control-great-plains-2022-04-12-a.json 7.8 KB
storm_test_control-great-plains-2022-04-12-b.json 7.8 KB
storm_test_control-heartland-2023-05-11-a.json 7.8 KB
storm_test_control-heartland-2023-05-11-b.json 8.2 KB
storm_test_control-iowa-2024-05-21-a.json 8.0 KB
storm_test_control-iowa-2024-05-21-b.json 7.8 KB
storm_test_control-mayfield-2021-12-11-a.json 7.8 KB
storm_test_control-mayfield-2021-12-11-b.json 7.8 KB
storm_test_control-midwest-2021-12-15-a.json 8.0 KB
storm_test_control-midwest-2021-12-15-b.json 7.8 KB
storm_test_control-nebraska-2024-04-26-a.json 8.1 KB
storm_test_control-nebraska-2024-04-26-b.json 7.8 KB
storm_test_control-oklahoma-2024-05-06-a.json 8.5 KB
storm_test_control-oklahoma-2024-05-06-b.json 7.8 KB
storm_test_control-palm-sunday-2023-04-05-a.json 9.4 KB
storm_test_control-palm-sunday-2023-04-05-b.json 8.4 KB
storm_test_control-southeast-2024-12-28-a.json 7.8 KB
storm_test_control-southeast-2024-12-28-b.json 8.1 KB
storm_test_control-tennessee-2023-12-09-a.json 8.0 KB
storm_test_control-tennessee-2023-12-09-b.json 7.9 KB
storm_test_deep-south-2023-03-24.json 8.6 KB
storm_test_great-plains-2022-04-12.json 8.8 KB
storm_test_heartland-2023-05-11.json 8.5 KB
storm_test_iowa-2024-05-21.json 9.1 KB
storm_test_mayfield-2021-12-11.json 8.9 KB
storm_test_midwest-2021-12-15.json 8.3 KB
storm_test_nebraska-2024-04-26.json 8.7 KB
storm_test_oklahoma-2024-05-06.json 9.1 KB
storm_test_palm-sunday-2023-04-05.json 9.0 KB
storm_test_southeast-2024-12-28.json 8.6 KB
storm_test_tennessee-2023-12-09.json 8.4 KB

Visualizations

v3-density-comparison.png 65.0 KB
v3-dose-response-scatter.png 116.2 KB
v3-mayfield-closeup.html 2.5 MB
v3-oklahoma-closeup.html 1.0 MB
v3-per-event-matrix.png 287.1 KB
v3-per-event-precursor-curves.png 453.8 KB
v3-replication-verdict-table.png 369.8 KB
v3-three-pool-lag-curves.png 212.6 KB

Paper

paper.pdf 838.6 KB
paper.tex 18.6 KB

Findings

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Related

Cites

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